Hurricane Idalia is expected to start making landfall in Florida as early as Tuesday evening and make landfall by Wednesday. (August 28)
Tourists weather stronger waves from Hurricane Idalia to the southernmost buoy on Tuesday, August 29, 2023 in Key West, Florida. Hurricane Idalia is expected to gain strength rapidly as it feeds on some of the hottest ocean waters on Earth. According to scientists, this is Florida and other areas of the Gulf Coast. (Rob O’Neill/Key West Citizen via AP)
1:31 pm EDT, Tuesday, August 29, 2023 Satellite imagery shows Hurricane Idalia (center) approaching Florida’s Gulf Coast, while Hurricane Franklin (right) follows Florida’s east coast. United States, southwestern Bermuda. Hurricane Idalia is fed by some of the hottest waters on Earth and is expected to intensify rapidly as it hits Florida and other parts of the Gulf Coast, scientists say. (NOAA, AP)
Beachgoers crowd the shore as strong winds kick up huge waves in Hollywood Beach, Florida on Tuesday, August 29, 2023. Hurricane Idalia is expected to rapidly intensify after impact, with some of the hottest water on Earth. According to scientists, this is Florida and other areas of the Gulf Coast. (AP Photo/Martha Lavandieu)
Storm clouds hang over the waterfront homes in Stan Hatch, Florida ahead of the expected arrival of Hurricane Idalia on Tuesday, August 29, 2023. Hurricane Idalia is expected to rapidly intensify across its area of influence thanks to the hottest water source on Earth. According to scientists, this is Florida and other areas of the Gulf Coast. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell)
Crews at Toucans Grill pick up a dining room ahead of Hurricane Idalia on Tuesday, August 29, 2023, from a window in Clearwater, Florida. Residents of Florida’s Gulf Coast prepare for the aftermath of Idalia. (AP Photo/Chris O’Meara)
Tourists stop to photograph clouds over the southern tip of Tybee Island, Georgia, ahead of Hurricane Idalia, Tuesday, August 29, 2023. On Tuesday, Idalia intensified into a hurricane and rushed to the coast of the Gulf of Mexico in Florida. (Stephen B. Morton/The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, AP)
Hurricane Idalia, which feeds on some of the hottest waters on Earth, is rapidly intensifying as it hits Florida and other parts of the Gulf Coast. A lot has happened lately.
“The temperature of the storm will be 88.89 degrees [31.32 degrees Celsius], so that’s really rocket fuel for the storm,” said Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University. The storm has intensified.”
Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami, said the water was “incredibly warm, and it’s surreal to see these values all over the northeast part of the bay.”
“Idalia is moving so fast and so hard, which is what makes this outbreak so complex and dangerous,” the National Weather Service chief said, and some may be preparing for what seemed like a weaker storm the day before, rather than the storm that They talked. collide. Ken Graham.
Kerry Emanuel, professor of hurricanes at MIT, said Idalia “has the potential to set an intensity record because its waters are so warm.” On Tuesday, he said, there were only a few places on Earth equipped to deal with the sudden intensification of the storm – mostly warm water.
While Emanuel spoke, the wind was blowing at 80 miles per hour in Idalia. A few hours later, winds reached 90 mph, and by 10 p.m., Idalia had intensified into a Category 2 hurricane with winds of 110 mph, an increase of 40 mph in 21 hours. The storm officially intensifies quickly when winds reach 35 mph for 24 hours.
All summer long, scientists have been discussing how hot the surface of the ocean is, especially in the Atlantic Ocean and near Florida, and how much deeper water (measured by the heat content of the ocean) is also setting records due to anthropogenic climate change. The National Hurricane Center’s forecast discussion specifically mentioned ocean heat content, predicting that Idalia could reach winds of 125 mph before making landfall on Wednesday morning.
Kristen Corboziero, professor of atmospheric science at the University of Albany, said “Idalia’s rapid rise is definitely related to heat as we know it.”
Workers at the Toucans Bar and Grill board up the windows of a restaurant ahead of Hurricane Idalia in Clearwater, Fla., Tuesday, August 29, 2023. (AP Photo/Chris O’Meara)
Koboshiro and other scientists say the warmer waters are the result of a combination of anthropogenic climate change, natural El Niño and other random weather events.
even more. Adalia sometimes stops at the Cycle and the whirlpools created by the Cycle. According to Koboshiro, these are ultra-warm deep pools of water that flow from the Caribbean Sea into the Gulf of Mexico.
Deep water is important because hurricane development tends to stop when storms reach cold water. According to Emanuel, it is like pouring cold water on a pile of hot coals that power a steam engine. Often storms themselves are slowed down, raising cold water from the depths, preventing its supply of energy.
Not Idalia. Not only is the water at depth warmer than before, Emanuel said, but Idalia is heading to an area off Florida’s west coast where the water isn’t deep enough to get colder. In addition, because this is the first storm of the season to hit the region, there are no other hurricanes bringing cold water to Idalia, Klotzbach said.
Another fact that can slow down the increase in wind is high-altitude crosswinds, known as shear. But hurricane experts said Idalia moved into the area without much wind shear or anything else to slow it down.
Tourists stop to photograph clouds over the southern tip of Tybee Island, Georgia, ahead of Hurricane Idalia, Tuesday, August 29, 2023. (Stephen B. Morton/The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, AP)
A hurricane that gets stronger as it gets closer to the coast should sound familiar. The six hurricanes of 2021 – Delta, Gamma, Sally, Laura, Hanna and Teddy – are rapidly intensifying. Hurricanes Ian, Ida, Harvey and Michael did this before hitting the US over the past five years, Klotzbach said. is there some more.
A study published last week showed that worldwide, storms within 240 miles (400 kilometers) of coastlines are rapidly intensifying and becoming three times stronger than they were 40 years ago. This used to happen an average of 5 times a year, but now it’s 15 times a year, according to a study published in the journal Nature Communications.
“The trend is very clear. We were shocked when we saw this result,” said study co-author Shuai Wang, a climate professor at the University of Delaware.
When it comes to a storm like Idalia, it’s hard to attribute its rapid intensification to climate change, say scientists like Wang and Koboshiro. But as scientists looked at the big picture over years and multiple storms, other studies linked global warming to rapid intensification.
In his study, Wang identified natural climate cycles associated with storm activity and warm sea surface temperatures as rapidly increasing factors. When he used computer simulations to include warmer water as a factor, he said, last-minute reinforcements disappeared.
“We may have to be a little careful about blaming climate change on a single storm,” Wang said, “but I do think Hurricane Idalia shows what we might see in the future.”
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Post time: Aug-30-2023